Lumen Vietnam Fund

Blog

Vietnam sets 2026 GDP growth target at 10%

Vietnam sets 2026 GDP growth target at 10%

The Vietnamese Government has set the targets for economic expansion in 2026 at about 10% and inflation at 4.5%.

Deputy Minister of Finance Nguyen Duc Chi mentioned the figures in his presentation on behalf of the Government at a National Assembly Standing Committee session on Wednesday.

Other targets are per capita income of $5,400-5,500, state budget revenue rising by 10%, investment spending down by 5%, and regular expenditures down by 10%.

Vietnam’s GDP grew 7.85% in the first nine months of the year and 8.23% in Q3, according to official data. The figures were the second-highest levels in 11 years, except for 2023 which saw a strong surge post the pandemic.

The consumer price index (CPI) for the first nine months rose 3.38% year-on-year and 2.61% compared to December 2024.

Key development priorities for 2026 include economic restructuring, especially in the credit system, handling bad debts, and promoting the digital and green economy, semiconductor technology, and artificial intelligence (AI).

Deputy Minister Chi also noted that foreign direct investment (FDI) attraction will remain selective. Vietnam will develop an international financial center in both Ho Chi Minh City and Da Nang, as well as new-generation free trade zones in major cities like Danang and Hai Phong to enhance financial resources and attract investment.

Reviewing the report, Phan Van Mai, Chairman of the National Assembly’s Economic and Financial Committee, said that the main growth drivers - exports, consumption, and investment - are "not really strong".

Exports are losing momentum and rely heavily on the FDI sector and external supply chains. Meanwhile, rising tax and technical barriers, along with green requirements from major markets like the U.S. and EU, are creating additional challenges.

Disbursement of public investment in 2025 remains low, at only about 50% of the plan as of end-September. Domestic consumption lacks breakthrough growth. Total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue grew an average of 7.5% annually during 2021-2025, significantly lower than in previous periods.

“We need to recognize that the economy still depends heavily on outsourced production and imports, with growth driven mainly by capital and labor,” Mai stressed.

Regarding the gold, bond, and real estate credit markets, the Economic and Financial Committee urged the Government to adopt risk-prevention measures to ensure macroeconomic stability.

Mai also noted that with narrower policy space, especially in monetary policy, maintaining macro stability will be challenging. “Given the current structure of the capital market and interest rates, further monetary easing would be challenging,” he said.

Vice Chairman of the National Assembly Tran Quang Phuong said achieving double-digit growth next year will be difficult amid a “new abnormal” global environment. He warned that Vietnam may face headwinds from global downturn risks, rising tariffs, public debt pressures, and restricted global trade.

He also cautioned that the emergence of a “technology bubble and AI fever” could lead to inefficient resource allocation, posing additional risks to economic stability and sustainable growth.

Business conditions in the Vietnamese manufacturing sector continued to improve slightly in September amid a renewed expansion of new orders, according to S&P Global.

Output and purchasing activity also increased, but firms continued to lower their staffing levels. The S&P Global Vietnam Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was unchanged at 50.4 in September, signalling a further slight strengthening in the health of the sector.

Operating conditions have now improved in three consecutive months. Helping to support overall business conditions in September was a renewed increase in new orders following a slight fall in August. That said, the rate of expansion was only marginal.

Source: Thai Ha

Photo: Photo courtesy of Daewoo Hanoi Hotel

Latest Posts

Vietnam PM asks Kuwait fund to expand investment in manufacturing, logistics, renewable energy

Vietnam PM asks Kuwait fund to expand investment in manufacturing, logistics, renewable energy

Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh on Monday called on the Kuwait Fund for Arab Economic Development (KFAED) to strengthen cooperation with Vietnam, particularly in the areas of industrial production, logistics, renewable energy, green economy, and the Halal ecosystem.

Speaking in Kuwait city during a meeting with KFAED director general Waleed Al-Bahar, the Prime Minister urged the fund to help connect Kuwaiti businesses with opportunities in Vietnam and support Vietnamese enterprises in accessing information and partnerships in Kuwait and the Middle East.

“There remains significant potential in Vietnam-Kuwait cooperation,” he noted, suggesting KFAED expand both direct and indirect investment.

The cabinet leader also called for KFAED’s support in financing, technology, human resource training, and management expertise.

“Both sides can begin with small cooperation and investment projects and gradually scale up. Vietnam stands ready to serve as a bridge for Kuwait and Middle Eastern countries to access the Chinese and ASEAN markets,” he added.

In response, Al-Bahar and KFAED representatives praised Vietnam’s socio-economic development, business environment, and strategic vision, and agreed to establish a joint working group to deepen cooperation and investment per Chinh's suggestion.

Al-Bahar emphasized the need to promote public-private partnerships and new cooperation models. He said the fund is interested in programs and projects aligned with Vietnam’s priority sectors and requested facilitation to advance collaboration through concrete projects.

To date, KFAED has provided concessional loans and grants totaling more than $183 million for 15 projects across Vietnam, supporting essential infrastructure, social welfare, climate resilience, and improved living conditions, particularly in remote and disadvantaged areas.

PM Chinh said he was impressed by Kuwait’s achievements in economic diversification and institutional reform under the Kuwait Vision 2035, and acknowledged KFAED’s significant contribution to this progress.

The Vietnamese leader suggested KFAED continue supporting Vietnam in key areas such as social welfare, rural development, water supply and sanitation, health care, education, climate-resilient infrastructure, and post-disaster recovery.

He reaffirmed Vietnam’s commitment to rapid yet sustainable development based on science-technology, innovation, and digital transformation. The country is also promoting green, circular, sharing, and knowledge-based economic models, with a focus on emerging sectors such as AI, semiconductors, IoT, big data, cloud computing, biotechnology, and the marine economy.

The Prime Minister noted that Vietnam is advancing its three strategic breakthroughs in institutional reform, infrastructure development, and human resources, aiming for modern institutions, seamless infrastructure, and smart human capital and governance.

Several “game-changing” projects are underway, including expressways; high-speed railways; major seaports and airports; nuclear, wind, and solar energy projects; and an international financial center, located both in HCMC and Danang.

Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh is paying official visits to Kuwait and Algeria, and will attend the G20 Summit, along with bilateral activities in South Africa, from November 16 to 24.

During Chinh's official visit to Kuwait, leaders of the two countries agreed to upgrade bilateral relations to a Strategic Partnership, laying a stronger foundation for deeper and more substantive cooperation.

Kuwait is currently Vietnam’s largest trade and investment partner among Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Bilateral trade reached $7.3 billion in 2024.

Kuwait’s largest investment project in Vietnam is the Nghi Son Refinery and Petrochemical Complex in Thanh Hoa province. The $9 billion complex is co-owned by Petrovietnam, Kuwait Petroleum Europe B.V. (KPE), and Japan’s Mitsui Chemical and Idemitsu Kosan Co.

Several local-level cooperation agreements are also in place, including partnerships between Ho Chi Minh City and Ahmadi governorate, and between Thanh Hoa province and Al Farwaniyah governorate.

10M consumer price index under control

10M consumer price index under control

Inflation remained well and truly under control in the first ten months of 2025, auguring well for a similar result for the year as a whole.

The latest report from the National Statistics Office (NSO) at the Ministry of Finance (MoF) put the increase to the consumer price index (CPI) in October at 0.2 per cent against September, 2.82 per cent since December 2024, and 3.25 per cent year-on-year. The increase in the first ten months of 2025 was 3.27 per cent year-on-year.

The main factors behind the October CPI increase were higher food prices in cities and provinces affected by flooding, rising costs of dining out due to higher ingredient prices, and adjustments to tuition fees in non-public education for the new school year. Housing, electricity and water, construction materials, clothing, household equipment, and other categories increased only slightly, reflecting recovery in consumer demand and higher production costs as the end of the year approaches.

Core inflation stable

According to the NSO, the average monthly CPI increase was 0.28 per cent since the start of the year; lower than in the same period of 2024. Main contributors included food and catering services (up 3.18 per cent), housing and construction materials (up 6.2 per cent), medicine and healthcare services (up 13.39 per cent), and education (up 1.95 per cent). Conversely, transportation (down 2.61 per cent) and postal and telecommunications services (down 0.48 per cent) helped limit overall growth.

Its figures also show that core inflation in October rose 0.35 per cent from September and 3.30 per cent year-on-year. On average, during the ten-month period, core inflation increased 3.20 per cent year-on-year, or slightly below overall CPI growth.

Results indicate that price and monetary policies are moving in the right direction, helping to control inflation without undermining economic growth. The increase in the CPI is also considered consistent with market trends and aligns with the government’s goal of keeping inflation under 4 per cent.

Experts noted that a ten-month CPI increase of just 3.27 per cent reflects close coordination between fiscal and monetary policies. The MoF controls public spending and reasonably manages prices on essential goods, while the State Bank of Vietnam proactively loosens credit in a controlled manner, supporting business recovery without creating inflationary pressure.

Certain factors may cause slight price increases in the final two months of 2025, such as rising year-end consumer demand, adjustments to tuition and public service fees, and global energy price fluctuations. However, with a stable macro-economic foundation and flexible policy tools, the likelihood of inflation exceeding 4.5 per cent is rather low.

Analysts emphasized the importance of stabilizing inflation expectations and avoiding “panic” price adjustments. Transparency in the supply and demand of fuel, food, gold, and foreign currency is also necessary to maintain market confidence.

The CPI increase in the first ten months clearly demonstrates that inflation in Vietnam is well-controlled despite global uncertainties. This outcome is not only the result of sound economic policies but also a key foundation for maintaining high growth, stabilizing living standards, and reinforcing confidence in the government’s management capacity.

Inflation under control

Vietnam’s inflation has remained stable even as fiscal and monetary policies have been loosened to support growth. As of the end of September, money supply was estimated to have risen 8.5 per cent, with credit up 13.4 per cent since the beginning of the year. However, the velocity of money stood at just 0.65-times, well below the usual 0.9 to 1.0-times.

Dr. Can Van Luc, Chief Economist at the Bank for Investment and Development of Vietnam (BIDV), attributed this mainly to a slowdown in money circulation. “Though more money is being injected into the economy, it is not circulating strongly, with bottlenecks in areas such as public investment and private sector capital flows,” he explained. “As a result, inflation did not surge.” Another key factor was tight control over essential goods like food, fuel, and electricity, along with ensuring ample supply.

According to the NSO, the positive results in inflation control are due to ministries, agencies, and local authorities aggressively implementing coordinated measures to manage prices and balance supply and demand, especially in essential goods, as directed by the government. Supportive policies, such as a 2 per cent reduction in VAT, cuts in fees and charges, and lower import tariffs on many goods, have also been maintained.

Local governments have actively promoted industrial programs, supported small and medium-sized enterprises, boosted production and business, and improved the investment environment. Experts believe these measures leave space to keep annual inflation below the National Assembly (NA) target.

Dr. Luc added that inflation is not a major concern for 2025. The annual average CPI is forecast at 3.8-4 per cent - under the NA target - thanks to sufficient supply of essential goods and services, stable exchange rates and interest rates, and close coordination between fiscal and monetary policies. Still, inflationary pressure may rise in the final quarter of the year due to cost-push and demand-pull factors.

Cost-push pressures include higher import prices stemming from US tariffs and increases in State-managed goods, while demand-pull pressures may come from credit growth to meet higher capital needs. Authorities also need to ensure adequate supply of essential goods during floods and natural disasters to stabilize prices.

Economists caution that authorities cannot be complacent. From now until year’s-end, food and dining-out prices could continue rising in flood-affected areas, particularly vegetables and processed food. Vietnam’s economy remains exposed to external factors, such as energy prices, exchange rates, and monetary policy changes in major economies, requiring careful monitoring and flexible policy adjustments.

Public investment disbursement pressure is also increasing, with nearly VND1,000 trillion ($38.5 billion) targeted for full allocation in 2025. Implementing market-based pricing for State-managed services must be carefully managed to balance CPI trends with development and social stability goals.

The government issued Resolution No. 86/NQ-CP on November 4, outlining key tasks for the closing months of the year and emphasizing continued inflation control, macro-economic stability, growth promotion, and the maintenance of major economic balances. Credit will be directed towards production, priority sectors, and growth drivers, while the gold, stock, bond, and real estate markets will be closely managed.

Energy cooperation key to Việt Nam - Germany multifaceted partnership

Energy cooperation key to Việt Nam - Germany multifaceted partnership

The meeting of the Việt Nam-Germany Joint Committee on Economic and Trade Cooperation reviewed progress, addressed existing obstacles and identified priority areas for the next phase.

HÀ NỘI —Việt Nam’s Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade Nguyễn Sinh Nhật Tân and Germany’s Parliamentary State Secretary for Economic Affairs and Energy Stefan Rouenhoff co-chaired the third meeting of the Việt Nam-Germany Joint Committee on Economic and Trade Cooperation on November 17 in Hà Nội.

The meeting reviewed progress, addressed existing obstacles and identified priority areas for the next phase.

Speaking at the meeting, Deputy Minister Tân said he was pleased to see the rapid growth of the multifaceted partnership between Việt Nam and Germany. He noted that the relationship was strengthened by long-standing friendship between the two peoples, close and practical cooperation between ministries, and deeper ties between the two business communities.

Energy cooperation remained a key pillar. The co-chairs welcomed the upgrade of the partnership to the Việt Nam-Germany Energy Partnership, which will serve as an overarching framework to support energy transition, emissions reduction towards carbon neutrality, energy security and business cooperation.

The two sides agreed to implement the 2025–2026 Action Plan, maintain annual high-level Steering Committee meetings, establish a technical working group and promote training, research, and business connections. Việt Nam highly valued Germany’s role in projects under the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) and called for further cooperation to advance sustainable energy development.

In industry and digitalisation, both sides agreed to expand cooperation in automobile production and to attract more German investment in supporting industries such as textiles, footwear, electronics and high-tech components.

Việt Nam encouraged German chemical companies to take advantage of incentives under the 2025 Law on Chemicals and to cooperate in promoting green chemistry for sustainable growth. The two sides also agreed to enhance technology transfer, innovation and digital transformation in industry, as well as to strengthen training in green skills, digital skills, and Industry 4.0 management.

In trade, Việt Nam and Germany committed to sharing information more actively, maintaining stable trade flows, ensuring smooth supply chains and maximising the benefits of multilateral cooperation frameworks, including the EU–Việt Nam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA). Việt Nam asked Germany to help its businesses meet market standards, and encouraged German companies to invest in deep processing of agricultural and aquatic products, logistics, cold storage and transhipment facilities for exports to Europe.

At the end of the meeting, Deputy Minister Tân and State Secretary Rouenhoff signed the minutes of the third session of the Joint Committee. The meeting took place in an open, constructive and friendly atmosphere, and both sides agreed to maintain regular sessions to support ministries and businesses in implementing agreed outcomes.

Germany is Việt Nam’s second-largest trading partner in Europe, accounting for more than 17 per cent of Việt Nam’s exports to the EU in 2024. It is also a key gateway for Vietnamese goods into other European markets.

According to the Việt Nam Customs, bilateral trade reached more than US$11.1 billion in the first ten months of 2025, up 15.1 per cent from the same period in 2024. Việt Nam’s exports to Germany rose by 19 per cent to nearly $7.8 billion, while imports increased by 7.2 per cent to almost $3.2 billion.

Around 300 German companies currently operate in Việt Nam, including major industrial groups such as Siemens, B. Braun, Bayer, Mercedes-Benz, Bosch and ZF. In energy, the two countries signed a Joint Declaration establishing their Energy Partnership on July 3, 2025, creating new momentum for cooperation.

As of October 31, 2025, Germany had 509 investment projects in Việt Nam with a total registered capital of over $3 billion, ranking 17th among 153 countries and territories investing in Việt Nam.

See all blog